All Praise The Piggly Wiggly

Not Geography Geography Lesson 6

Supermarket Science

For this week's post, I've decided to do something a bit unusual but that I found really interesting and surprising when I read about it earlier this week - the science of supermarkets! 

Pardon..?

Yes you read that right, the science of supermarkets. When we go to our local ASDA or Tesco etc, chances are that we do not even stop to think about a time before supermarkets were common, or how they are run specifically to encourage us to part with our money. The idea of world without the big stores seems really strange, especially for people who have always had them in their lifetimes, but they did not become popular until the 20th Century due to overproduction. Because of the advances made in manufacturing and agriculture, we suddenly found ourselves with too much food and rather than waste it, we needed to find ways to convince the public that they needed to buy more produce. 

And so the supermarket was born....

The Remarkable Piggly Wiggly  

The first model for the now familiar supermarket was proposed by a Virginia native named Clarence Saunders in 1917; he christened it the Piggly Wiggly store (hands down the best name for a store I have ever heard - 20/10). Previously when people went shopping, they gave a clerk their money and a shopping list, who would then go and collect the items and hand them over. Mr. Saunders decided he wasn't having this anymore, and introduced the future of Self-Service. He designed a store where customers collected their basket at the door, were guided through aisles of products that they picked at will, and then arrived at a till where they could pay and leave. It was faster, and most importantly, cheaper. Mind. Blown. 

People are Weird Creatures

Whilst this system is now the only one that we use, and is completely normal, back in 1917 people were blown away by the Piggly Wiggly. Like we are nowadays by videos of cats playing the keyboard. Customers even had to be given instructions upon entry because they just couldn't understand how it worked, potentially fearing that they would be trapped in a labyrinth of baked beans and milk forever. Clever Mr. Saunders even dreamed of another level of self-service where people could input their shopping lists into a computer, and mechanized arms and conveyor belts would deliver it to them without needing human assistance at all. At the time people thought the guy was an absolute loon for coming up with these ideas, but 100 years on his vision seems totally normal. 

666: The Number of the Peas

Things have come a long way since the first Piggly Wiggly, with Walmart now being the world's largest corporation with profits equal to 2% of the USA's entire GDP. Bonus fact - they also own the second most powerful computer in the world, behind the Pentagon. We are now all very familiar with the layout and process of supermarket shopping, including the use of barcodes on our products - which at first featured '6-manufacture code-6-product code-6'. If you are of a 'tin foil hat' predisposition, Google 'the 666 barcode conspiracy theory', and enjoy. 

The science of the supermarket is now a very real thing, and there is even a special name for studying supermarkets - Atmospherics. Social scientists and psychologists now dedicate their entire careers to studying how every tiny thing in the store is carefully designed to encourage maximum spending. This includes music, colour and material of displays, how the aisles and products are positioned, having last-minute buys at the till, baking bread in store to make customers hungry, and even putting the essential items like bread and milk at the back of the store so the customer has to walk past all the other products to get there. Turns out that a lot goes into a shopping trip that we don't know about, including bizarre theories such as the 'butt brush theory' where designers widen aisles because research suggests that when customers are forced to brush past one another more than once, they hasten their trip and spend less money (!). 

Where Next?

Whilst coming up with even more bonkers theories and constantly perfecting their marketing techniques, supermarkets are also getting ready to implement Electronic Product Codes (EPCs), which are the real stuff of George Orwell's nightmares. EPCs will eventually be on all products and contain data on exactly what the product is, where it was manufactured/grown, when it expires, and most terrifyingly - where it is at any point. It will be possible to track down goods which have been stolen, and also use the location data to work out when you picked up the product, if you put it into your basket, if you took it out and swapped it for something else, how long you kept it in the cupboard before you used it and discarded the packaging.... That's some freaky stuff.

Considering how far we have come since the Piggly Wiggly, the science of the supermarket is actually really strange when you think about, and it only seems to be getting stranger. On the plus side, the only major downside to ASDA knowing that you buy 30 Pot Noodles a week, is their targeted marketing sending you Pot Noodle related offers for the rest of your life. And happy 100th Anniversary of the Piggly Wiggly!

A Bit Of A Sinking Feeling

Not Geography Geography Lesson 5

Sneaky Sinkholes 

It is that time again - not geography geography time! And this week's super-exciting topic is sinkholes (What? How? Why? Where? So many questions)! They have been in the news quite often in recent years, and are fascinating and kinda horrifying in equal measures - so lets go.

Now That is One Big Ole' Hole!

Sink holes, or 'dolines' in geological terminology, are (predictably) holes in the ground that can open up within minutes, and range in size from a couple of meters to tens of miles across, and many meters deep. Occasionally, people are killed when they're house or car is swallowed up by one of these holes, such as widely-reported Floridian Jeffery Bush in 2013. 

So The Earth is Swallowing People... How?

The actual mechanics of sinkholes is really simple. They occur in areas where the underlying rock is easily erodible by water, mostly limestone,  topped with unconsolidated or weak rock, like sand or clay. When acidic water from rain, groundwater, aquifers etc. passes through the limestone layer, it erodes the rock, and eventually will do so to such an extent that a significant portion is missing (known as a 'karst') . Now, you have a few thin layers of soil/rock bridging the gap above the empty void, with your house/car/swimming pool/pets/helicopter sitting on top for good measure. At this point, anything which disturbs the balance - heavy rain or building work normally - could cause the top layers to collapse, and everything falls into the hole underneath. You'll be going down fast than a post-sesh kebab. Bad times. 

Slightly Worrying - Where?

Because limestone is a very common rock foundation in lots of areas, theoretically anywhere meeting the conditions (limestone + sand/clay + house + trigger)  could be prone to sinkholes. But, the last time I checked, large proportions of the Earth weren't doing Swiss cheese impressions. So, there are some other factors to account for - the acidity of the water flowing through the limestone varies greatly geographically (between pH 6.5 - 4), as does the size of the limestone, and the strength and depth of the overlying rock. If your water isn't acidic enough, or your limestone layer is only small, or your top layers are deep and strong, you won't get a sinkhole (boo). 

The spread of susceptible areas seems to reasonably even globally, but we only hear about the ones which have affected humans, and they seem to be concentrated in the USA and China. In fact, the USGS have determined that 20% of the US is vulnerable to the ole' sinkhole. Florida particularly is a hotspot, and house insurance is almost impossible to get in some of the worst affected areas. 

Is My House Going To Fall Into A Big Hole?

Before anyone starts frantically consulting geological maps and puts their house up for sale, there is good and bad news on this one. Bad news - sink holes are very unpredictable, because lots of places have the right conditions, but we can't tell what is happening under the surface until its already happened. Good news - sinkholes don't often open up quickly, so there is lots of opportunity to evacuate and then rebuild, and they are also pretty rare. 

There are some speculations that climate change has and will continue to increase the number of sinkholes, as more extreme rainfall is a trigger, and rain acidification intensifies the erosive capability of that rain. Also, as we build more and more houses in new areas, often unmoderated in poorer countries, we could be unknowingly constructing sinkhole time bombs. 

On that cheery note, thank you for reading! 

*Rather not shockingly, sinkhole gifs are quite hard to find, so I tried my best okay.  

Saving the Planet's Laziest Bear

Not Geography Geography Lesson 4

Donate Pandas Here 

The topic for this week may be straying slightly into ecology territory, but as Geography is such a wide subject, it often overlaps other similar natural sciences. And also this is my blog so I'll write what I want. And so, this week we will explore the recent success of panda conservation, and some evidence to suggest that all may not be as rosy as it appears for China's favourite fur-babies. 

God Was Having an Off-Day When He Made the Pandas 

For the last two decades, the lovable giant panda has been the poster child for wildlife conservation globally, the Beyonce of endangered species. Copious amounts of charity and government money has been dedicated to monitoring, breeding and releasing the bears, as well as the invention of 'panda diplomacy' by China (wherein they lend some pandas as a gesture of goodwill). 

All things considered, the pandas seem to need all the help they can get, as they are the animal equivalent of Homer Simpson. They sleep for up to 16 hours a day, and spend the remainder of their time eating nutrient-poor bamboo; they often miss their very narrow window for mating because of this! And we all remember the hype and subsequent disappointment when it was thought Edinburgh Zoo's diplomacy panda Tian Tian was pregnant, but actually was just pretending to be, so she would receive more food.... 

Conservation Works

Due to the enormous economic and time investments made into the protection of pandas in China, it was declared in Autumn last year that they are no longer 'Endangered'. In their latest National Panda Survey, Chinese researchers found an increase of 16.8% in their numbers, and there are now more than 1246 pandas living in 67 reserves, as well as over 1800 wild pandas. And more pandas = more videos of baby pandas falling over = everybody is a winner. 

But is it too Good to be True..?

Although it would seem like everything is going swimmingly for the pandas, some Chinese officials and conservationists have criticized the down-grading as premature and damaging to their efforts, as it may lead to a relaxation of protected policies and loss of funding. They stated that although more pandas have been found in the wild, the area in which the survey was conducted was much larger than that of the last survey, so they would always find more pandas over a bigger area. Also, their habitat is becoming increasingly broken up by railways and roads, which separate the population into smaller colonies and reduce their ability to survive. 

The Future for Pandas

Sadly it might not be time to celebrate just yet. To continue their work successfully and maintain the conservation of the world's favourite bear, scientists are calling for increases in their funding to build reserves in areas where there are currently no pandas. Hopefully in the future, they will be able to restore panda populations to the entirety of the region, rather than in the current little clusters. And surely that can only be a good thing for everyone. 

Despite the uncertainties into the actual numbers of increase in pandas, it is still sure that they are being brought back from the brink of extinction (even if it is partly their own lazy fault in the first place)! Of course, there are two gifs of baby pandas falling over, because pandas. 

PS: I am completely open to accepting gestures of good will by the Chinese government, in the form of a panda. 

Can We Predict Earthquakes?

Not Geography Geography Lesson 3 

The Dodgy Science of Earthquake Prediction

In slight contradiction to the 'not-geography' theme, this week's focus is somewhat stereotypical for the subject - Earthquakes (EQs)! And the all important question of can we predict earthquakes?

The aftermaths of earthquakes can be absolutely devastating - in the past thousands of people have died, and millions of dollars have been lost in single events, and they receive global attention for the scale of rescue and repair efforts required. Entire cities collapse, enormous landslides are triggered, fires consume the landscape, and the ground can even liquify underneath you (known as liquifaction). They are bad mojo. Hence, governments and scientific organisations have invested big bucks and decades of work into understanding their mechanisms, with a view to predicting them and preparing accordingly. 

The EQ Prediction Race 

Although the modern seismograph was invented in the late 1880's (and some forms of the device have been around in China since 132 AD!), they were less reliable than a Northern Rail train until around 1980. From this point though, an innovation race was on between China, Russia and the US to find a pattern in seismic waves that could reliably be seen to 'predict' EQs by way of precursors. Millions upon millions of dollars were invested into research programs, and some early successes heightened the scientific community's optimism that within the next decade, we could successfully predict EQs. 

It All Goes A Bit Downhill 

Despite the previous optimism, research began to stale and plateau, and slowly scientists and governments lost hope. A series of severe failures in prediction (and not prediction!) led to the closure of all bar one Japanese program. And you don't have to be a MENSA member to see why....

A Series Of Incredibly Unfortunate Events 

• 1976 Tangshan EQ, China - In the previous year, Chinese scientists had 'successfully' predicted the occurrence of a 7.3M EQ in Haicheng, and saved 1000's of lives through their evacuation. Full of hope and confidence from this, they went on to highlight several other areas ready for a big event - Tangshan was not one of these. On the 28th July, a 7.8M EQ tore through the region, and left between 250'000 and 700'000 people dead (there are some dodge figure misreporting issues, but that's another story!). The fact that China failed to foresee this event, the second most deadly natural disaster in modern history, off the back of their previous success, went a serious distance to discrediting the science of EQ prediction. 

• 1990 New Madrid EQ, Missouri - Whilst not being known for having regular EQ's (as there are no tectonic plate boundaries close to the area), the US's mid-west is actually a seismic zone; this is known as intraplate seismicity. There is reliable evidence that big EQ's have occurred in this area in the past. And so in 1990, a man by the name of Dr. Iben Browning declared that the coming alignment of the moon was going to trigger an enormous and devastating event in the very near future. Whilst every seismologist and his dog rubbished the idea, the local media seized it with both hands, and generated absolute pandemonium. People were evacuated, buildings reinforced, and for the very reasonable price of $39 you could purchase a 30-minute recording of Browning describing how he had rendered his wonderous prediction. When the 3rd December rolled around, and the earth didn't so much as hiccup, people realised that perhaps they should have been slightly more skeptical. And with that Dr. Iben Browning made his fortune in pseudo-science recordings and 'I survived the 1990 New Madrid Earthquake' t-shirts. And the world lost another piece of it's dwindling hope in EQ prediction. 

• 1985 - 1993 Parkfield Experiment, California - The final nail in this sorry coffin, is the slightly funny but mainly sad failure of the San Andreas Parkfield experiment. With government funding, the USGS (US Geological Society) set up this experiment, with hopes of proving their accuracy in predicting EQs on a small segment of the infamous San Andreas fault, based on the number of years between events seeming to be highly regular (known as interval times, or Seismic Gap Theory). By their reckoning, the next big one was coming in 1993, so they set up $1000's of dollars of equipment and the whole world sat and waited. 1993 came and went... as did 1994.... and 1995.... By 2004 I imagine even the most dedicated seismologist had packed up his camping chair and gone home. An earthquake did not occur until that year - 11 years late. Rude. Unfortunately, this was the final nail in the EQ prediction coffin. 

But We Do Still Get EQ Warnings..?

Whilst we no longer believe we can predict EQs - which is on a short-term basis of hours to weeks - we do still produce reasonably reliable EQ forecasts. These run on much longer timescales, and are probabilistic in nature. Based on seismological, historical and geological records, seismologists build a timeline of previous EQs as accurately as possible, and use that to determine the probability of an EQ happening within a given time-frame, using recurrence intervals and maths. In all likelihood, these are the best estimates we will ever be able to produce. 

Unfortunately we will most likely never be able to predict earthquakes, but there is a moral to the whole sorry affair - if Dr. Iben Browning could have the nerve to fool an entire nation with a fictional apocalypse, you can talk to that girl you like.